TY  - THES
N1  - Pembimbing : Dr. Sunaryati, SE, M.Si
ID  - digilib44046
UR  - https://digilib.uin-suka.ac.id/id/eprint/44046/
A1  - Nur Afifah Ulya, NIM.: 17108010070
Y1  - 2020/12/29/
N2  - A healthy and balanced economy is the ideal in many countries. However,
along with the development of globalization, the ideal is difficult to be achieved.
As a developing country, the Indonesian economy is heavily influenced by external
conditions that can affect the balance of the domestic government budget. So there
is a possibility of Twin Deficits and Feldstein Horioka conditions that will occur in
Indonesia. This condition if it occurs continuously, it will endanger the Indonesian
economy. This research was conducted to test and find the conditions of Twin
Deficits and Feldstein Horioka since the pre-crisis period, in 1981 to 2019 using the
ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) method. The dependent variable in this
study is Current Account Balance (% GDP). Meanwhile, the independent variables
in this study are Government Budget and Investment.

The results in this study indicate that the Twin Deficits phenomenon in the
long term and short term does not occur in Indonesia, where the budget deficit does
not affect the current account deficit in the period of 1981 to 2019. This is consistent
with the Ricardian Equivalence theory contained in the Twin Deficits theory.
Meanwhile, the Feldstein Horioka phenomenon occurred in Indonesia in 1981-2019
in the long and short term, where the investment variable had a positive effect on
the current account deficit.
PB  - UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA
KW  - Fenomena Twin Deficits
KW  -  Feldstein-Horioka
KW  -  ARDL
M1  - skripsi
TI  - HIPOTESIS TWIN DEFISIT DAN FELDSTEIN-HORIOKA INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN ARDL (AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG) PERIODE 1981-2019
AV  - restricted
EP  - 137
ER  -