TY  - THES
N1  - Pembimbing: Dr. Epha Diana Supandi, M. Sc
ID  - digilib56138
UR  - https://digilib.uin-suka.ac.id/id/eprint/56138/
A1  - Farikhatun Nabila, NIM.: 18106010043
Y1  - 2022/11/15/
N2  - The raising of unpredictable COVID-19 cases makes it difficult to predict
the amount of medical personnel, medical equipment, and health facilities that are
needed. Forecasting helps decision-makers make better or more focused estimates
by estimating future uncertainty. The double moving average (DMA) method and
the double exponential smoothing (DES) method are two techniques that can be
used to forecast time series data. This study aims to compare between the DMA and
DES methods. This study used daily data of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in
Australia from September 1st 2021 to February 28th 2022. Based on the results and
discussion, the best parameters for each method were obtained. The DMA method
with 7 period parameters obtained the smallest Mean Absolute Error (MSE) and
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of 81,042,735 and 0.1467%
respectively. Meanwhile, the DES method with parameter of and obtained MSE and
MAPE values of 77490510 and 0.1424% respectively. Based on the average value
of the least squared error and the average value of the smallest percentage error,
the DES method is more appropriate for predicting confirmed cases of COVID-19
in Australia.
PB  - UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA
KW  - garis singgung; turunan parsial; COVID-19; forecasting; moving average
M1  - skripsi
TI  - PERBANDINGAN METODE DOUBLE MOVING AVERAGE DAN
METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
(Studi Kasus : Peramalan Pasien COVID-19 di Australia)
AV  - restricted
EP  - 142
ER  -