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PERBANDINGAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN AVERAGE BASED DAN FUZZY TIME SERIES CHENG AVERAGE BASED PADA PERAMALAN HARGA SAHAM
Stock investment has a high risk, because stock prices continue to move and fluctuate throughout the trading day. Therefore, accurate forecasting can help investors make decisions. Forecasting is a process of predicting something in the future by utilizing past data analyzed using statistical methods. The Chen and Cheng Fuzzy Time Series method was chosen because it is more flexible and reliable, especially for ambiguous or uncertain data. The purpose of this study is to forecast the closing stock price data of PT. Bank Syariah (BSI) for the period December 1, 2022 to December 30, 2024 using the Chen and Cheng Fuzzy Time Series method, and to compare the two methods. The comparison of the two methods is determined by calculating the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The forecasting results using the Chen and Cheng Fuzzy Time Series method show movements that follow the actual data. Based on the calculation of the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value, the Fuzzy Time Series Cheng method was chosen as a more accurate forecasting method, with a MAPE value of 1.66335%, while the MAPE value of Fuzzy Time Series Chen was 1.793334%. Therefore, the forecast of the closing stock price of BSI for the period of January 2, 2025 using the Fuzzy Time Series Cheng method is estimated at Rp. 2711.94 and the actual data shows the stock price of Rp. 1740.
FAKULTAS SAINS DAN TEKNOLOGI, UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA
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