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ANALISIS MODEL SISTEM DINAMIS UNTUK MENGETAHUI PENGARUH PERUBAHAN DAYA BELI TENGKULAK DAN PERUBAHAN DAERAH PEMASOK TEMBAKAU TERHADAP KEUNTUNGAN TAHUNAN TENGKULAK
This research was conducted on Gudang Roni, one of the major middlemen in Temanggung Regency who experienced a decrease in profit due to a decline in supply from supplying areas such as Kedu, Kandangan, and Temanggung sub-districts. This study aims to analyze the effect of changes in purchasing power and supplying areas on the final profit of tobacco middlemen using a system dynamics approach. The research method uses system dynamics modeling based on Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and Stock Flow Diagram (SFD), and simulations are carried out using Powersim software. Model validation is carried out through model verification, MAPE calculation, and extreme condition tests. This research produces two simulation scenarios to optimize middlemen's profits when large companies reopen their demand for supply. The first scenario is increasing the purchase percentage from the main supplying areas to 25%, based on the ratio between warehouse capacity and the estimated production amount from the supplying areas in 2026. Meanwhile, the second scenario is a combination of increasing the purchase percentage and adding supply from Bulu Sub-district, with a purchase percentage from Bulu area at a maximum of 7.5% and from the initial supplying areas at 15%. The simulation results show that the second scenario provides more stable profit in the long term, although there are additional distribution costs. The results of this research are expected to provide strategic recommendations for Gudang Roni in responding to supply fluctuations and to serve as a basis for measured business decision-making in the future.
FAKULTAS SAINS DAN TEKNOLOGI, UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA
NIM.: 21106060077 Fajriyan Irfanda Agung
ANALISIS MODEL SISTEM DINAMIS UNTUK MENGETAHUI PENGARUH PERUBAHAN DAYA BELI TENGKULAK DAN PERUBAHAN DAERAH PEMASOK TEMBAKAU TERHADAP KEUNTUNGAN TAHUNAN TENGKULAK (Text)
ANALISIS MODEL SISTEM DINAMIS UNTUK MENGETAHUI PENGARUH PERUBAHAN DAYA BELI TENGKULAK DAN PERUBAHAN DAERAH PEMASOK TEMBAKAU TERHADAP KEUNTUNGAN TAHUNAN TENGKULAK (Other)
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