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THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY AND MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS ON THE PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT IN INDONESIA FROM JANUARI 2015 - SEPTEMBER 2025
Portfolio investment in the capital market reflects investors' responses to monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions developing within an economy. In Indonesia, the dynamics of portfolio investment can be observed through movements in the Composite Stock Price Index as an indicator of stock market performance. This study analyses the effect of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and economic growth (GDP growth) on portfolio investment in Indonesia during the period from January 2015 to September 2025 using a time series approach and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The results of the analysis show that exchange rates and economic growth have a significant effect on portfolio investment, while inflation and interest rates do not have a significant effect on the IDX composite during the observation period. These findings indicate that investors in the Indonesian capital market are more concerned with external stability and economic growth prospects than with monetary variables, whose changes have been relatively anticipated by the market.
FAKULTAS EKONOMI DAN BISNIS ISLAM, UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA
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