Institutional Repository UIN Sunan Kalijaga YogyakartaANALISIS PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN DARAH MENGGUNAKAN METODE MOVING AVERAGE, EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING, DAN ARIMA SEBAGAI DASAR PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN DENGAN CONTINUOUS REVIEW (STUDI KASUS: UDD PMI KOTA YOGYAKARTA)NIM.: 22106060034Maulid Fajar NugrohoauthorBlood is a perishable product with a limited shelf life; therefore, inventory must be managed effectively to minimize shortages and expiration. The Blood Donation Unit (UDD) of the Indonesian Red Cross (PMI) Yogyakarta City continues to face uncertainty in blood demand, highlighting the need for an accurate forecasting method as the basis for inventory control. This study aims to determine the most appropriate forecasting method, forecast the demand for Packed Red Cells (PRC) over the next 12 months, and establish an inventory control policy using the Continuous Review method. The study utilized monthly historical PRC demand data from 2022 to May 2026 for blood types A, B, O, and AB. The forecasting methods compared were Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The best method was selected based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that the demand pattern for all blood types is random. Double Exponential Smoothing was the most accurate method for blood type A (testing MAPE = 10.83%), while Moving Average performed best for blood types B and AB (testing MAPE = 10.12% and 18.89%, respectively), and ARIMA was the best model for blood type O (testing MAPE = 14.59%). The forecast for the upcoming year indicates a declining demand trend for blood type A, whereas demand for blood types B, O, and AB is expected to remain relatively stable. The proposed inventory control policy recommends safety stock levels of 87, 91, 115, and 35 units; reorder points of 168, 202, 269, and 68 units; and optimal order quantities of 21, 25, 29, and 14 units for blood types A, B, O, and AB, respectively. These findings can support UDD PMI Yogyakarta City in improving blood demand planning and inventory control.670 Teknik Industri2026-07-28UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA;FAKULTAS SAINS DAN TEKNOLOGIThesis

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