%0 Thesis
%9 Skripsi
%A Cindy Lauren Marentesa, NIM.: 21106010041
%B FAKULTAS SAINS DAN TEKNOLOGI
%D 2026
%F digilib:79710
%I UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA
%K PDRB, IPM, Persamaan Simultan, Data Panel, Metode 2SLS,  Metode 2SLS GMM Arellano-Bond, MAPE, MSE
%P 140
%T PEMODELAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA DENGAN PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN DATA PANEL STATIS DAN DINAMIS
%U https://digilib.uin-suka.ac.id/id/eprint/79710/
%X Economic growth and human development are two main indicators of regional  development success that influence each other in a complex manner. This study  aims to examine the simultaneous relationship between economic growth through  Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) and human development measured by  the Human Development Index (HDI) in Indonesia. In addition to testing the twoway  causality, this research focuses on comparing the forecasting accuracy  between the static panel data simultaneous equation model using the Two-Stage  Least Squares (2SLS) method and the dynamic panel data simultaneous equation  model using the 2SLS Generalized Method of Moments Arellano Bond (GMM  AB) method to determine the best estimation model. The data used covers 33  provinces in Indonesia, sourced from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The simultaneity  test results indicate a significant simultaneous relationship between GRDP and  HDI. The accuracy calculation is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage  Error (MAPE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) indicators. The 2SLS GMM AB  method shows a MAPE value of 4.83% in the GRDP equation and 40.13% in the  HDI equation. The testing results demonstrate that the 2SLS GMM Arellano Bond  method is able to control time dynamic bias more optimally, thereby producing a  lower error rate and more precise prediction accuracy compared to the 2SLS  method.
%Z Arya Fendha Ibnu Shina, M.Si. dan Arif Munandar, M.Sc.