PERHITUNGAN B-VALUE MENGGUNAKAN METODE LIKELIHOOD UNTUK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA (1 OKTOBER 1973 – 31 DESEMBER 2019)

Salman Hudi, NIM. 14620032 (2021) PERHITUNGAN B-VALUE MENGGUNAKAN METODE LIKELIHOOD UNTUK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA (1 OKTOBER 1973 – 31 DESEMBER 2019). Skripsi thesis, UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA.

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Abstract

The b-Value, commonly called the rock fragility level, is a seismicity parameter used to estimate a potential area causing earthquakes in the future, either destructive or non-destructive. The research on b-Value carried out in the Special Region of Yogyakarta (October 1, 1973 – December 31, 2019) aimed to study the vulnerability of an area to earthquakes. The b-Value was studied based on the data of earthquakes occurred in the Special Region of Yogyakarta (October 1, 1973 – December 31, 2019), downloaded from the USGS website. The data of earthquakes and their information was divided into 8 areas, in which the average magnitude and minimum magnitude of each area were calculated by the maximum likelihood estimation to determine the b-Value. Such b-Values were used to determine the seismic vulnerability index or a-Value, the seismicity index, the probability of potential earthquakes, and the period of repeated earthquakes in the Special Region of Yogyakarta. The calculation results showed that the average magnitude ranged from Mw = 5.34 to 5.84, while the minimum magnitude (Mw = 4.97) was in area 7. The distribution of b-Value ranged from 1.08 to 2.22 with the minimum b-Value in area 8 and the maximum b-Value in area 3. The distribution of a-Value ranged from 7.13 to 14.60 with the minimum a-Value in area 8 and the maximum a-Value in area 3. The seismicity index ranged from 0.003492106 to 0.04668638 with T (time) = 10, 20, 30 and 46 years, while the probability value of potential earthquakes ranged from 3.4% to 88.3%. Meanwhile, the period of destructive repeated earthquakes was inversely proportional to the seismicity index, ranging from 21 to 286 years.

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