DETERMINAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI NEGARA ASEAN DENGAN NILAI TUKAR SEBAGAI VARIABEL MODERASI TAHUN 2010-2019

Harlindah, NIM.: 19208012044 (2021) DETERMINAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI NEGARA ASEAN DENGAN NILAI TUKAR SEBAGAI VARIABEL MODERASI TAHUN 2010-2019. Masters thesis, UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA.

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Abstract

Economic growth is one of the important indicators that can be used as economic development in a country. However, the high incomes that are not matched by sustainable development can lead to economic growth gaps. This study is intended to determine the effect of international trade, inflation and interest rates by including the governance index variable as a moderating variable on economic growth. The object of research used is all countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) by 57 countries, but limited data, so there are 27 countries selected for the period 2010-2019. This study uses the approach GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) to analyze data. Then for the used of the approach to analyze state governance variables using the Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA). The results of statistical tests show that international trade variables have a significant positive effect on economic growth except for inflation and interest rates which has a significant negative effect. This causes the negative effect of these variables due to the lack of control carried out by government policies. However, the governance index is able to moderate international trade, inflation and interest rates in their impact on economic growth. This study confirms that good governance can in fact improve the economy in OIC member countries.

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