UTANG LUAR NEGERI INDONESIA: KAJIAN TERHADAP BELANJA PEMERINTAH PUSAT

Juhariyah, NIM.: 19208012031 (2022) UTANG LUAR NEGERI INDONESIA: KAJIAN TERHADAP BELANJA PEMERINTAH PUSAT. Masters thesis, UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA.

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect caused by Personnel Expenditures, Capital Expenditures, Goods Expenditures and Subsidies on Indonesia's Foreign Debt. This study uses a quantitative approach with an explanatory type. The use of secondary data was obtained from various government publications. The study used the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. In the Granger Causality test, the ones that affect Foreign Debt are Goods Expenditures and Capital Expenditures. Based on the cointegration test, it was found that the dependent and independent variables were cointegrated with each other, this indicates that there is a stable long-term relationship. Meanwhile, in the short-term relationship, they still adjust to each other in the long-term relationship. This means that long-term relationships are stronger than short-term relationships. The analysis of the Vector AutoRegression (VAR) model in Impulse Response shows that the foreign debt response to the four independent variables in the first to the tenth period did not experience a very significant response. Compared to Impulse Response, the VAR model on Variance Decomposition is sufficient to provide statistical information on the four independent variables significantly.

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