DETERMINAN TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN DI NEGARA-NEGARA ANGGOTA ORGANISASI KERJA SAMA ISLAM (OKI): PERAN MODERASI HARGA MINYAK MENTAH GLOBAL

Muhammad Akbar Ramadhani, NIM.: 22208012006 (2024) DETERMINAN TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN DI NEGARA-NEGARA ANGGOTA ORGANISASI KERJA SAMA ISLAM (OKI): PERAN MODERASI HARGA MINYAK MENTAH GLOBAL. Masters thesis, UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA.

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Abstract

This study highlights unemployment as a developmental issue that occurs in OIC member countries. World Bank statistics indicate that OIC members significantly contribute to global unemployment. The study focuses on 36 OIC member states that are oil importers during the period 2008–2021. A moderation regression analysis (MRA) using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) was applied. The findings reveal that household consumption has a significant negative effect, investment has no significant effect, government expenditure has a significant positive effect, while international trade has an insignificant negative effect. Inflation and oil prices have a significant positive effect on unemployment in the sample countries. Moreover, oil prices weaken the influence of household consumption in reducing unemployment, diminish the impact of investment in increasing unemployment, reduce the influence of government spending in increasing unemployment, and mitigate the effect of inflation in driving unemployment. However, oil prices do not moderate the influence of international trade. All variables are significant in both the short term and long term. The study's key implications provide several recommendations: dependency on imported goods should be minimized to promote domestic productivity. Improving governance and implementing effective and efficient fiscal policies are critical for OIC countries. Governments need to develop strategies to anticipate oil price volatility to minimize its shock impacts on the economy.

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