DETERMINAN PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL DI UNI EROPA

Diana Wijayanti, NIM.: 23208012022 (2025) DETERMINAN PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL DI UNI EROPA. Masters thesis, UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA.

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the factors influencing international trade in European Union (EU) countries by using the trade balance as the dependent variable. The independent variables include tariff policy, inflation, exchange rates, economic growth, control of corruption, employers, and industrialization. The study employs dynamic panel data from 27 EU countries over the period 2004–2023 and applies the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to account for endogeneity and dynamic effects. The results indicate that tariff policy, inflation, and the number of employers have a negative and significant effect on international trade, while industrialization has a positive and significant impact. Meanwhile, exchange rates, control of corruption, and economic growth do not have a significant effect on the trade balance. These findings suggest that the determinants of trade in the European Union do not always align with conventional trade theories, particularly with respect to the roles of economic growth and exchange rates.

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