DINAMIKA INFLASI, SUKU BUNGA, INVESTASI, DAN SEKTOR KEUANGAN SYARIAH TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA: APAKAH THRESHOLD PENTING?

Shela Selviana, NIM.: 23208012028 (2025) DINAMIKA INFLASI, SUKU BUNGA, INVESTASI, DAN SEKTOR KEUANGAN SYARIAH TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA: APAKAH THRESHOLD PENTING? Masters thesis, UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA.

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of inflation, interest rates, investment, Islamic banking, and Islamic IKNB on Indonesia's economic growth and identify the optimal inflation threshold value using time series data for the period 2010–2024. The analysis was carried out by Multiple Linear Regression and Threshold Autoregressive (TAR). The results of the study show that the increase or decrease in inflation and interest rates does not affect economic growth, while the increase in investment, Islamic banking, and Islamic IKNB is proven to affect the increase in economic growth. Then other results show that inflation in a non-linear model can have an effect through the inflation threshold value at the rate of 2,86% which divides economic growth behavior in two regimes. Inflation below the threshold supports optimal and safe economic growth, while inflation at or above the threshold value can support growth but has the potential to have a weakening effect on supporting variables such as interest rates, investment, and the Islamic financial sector. This confirms that the inflation threshold has a critical turning point that affects the dynamics of economic growth in Indonesia, so monetary policy needs to keep inflation at a moderate and controlled level.

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