PERAN KETIDAKSTABILAN GEOPOLITIK DALAM MEMODERASI VARIABEL MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI 5 NEGARA ASEAN

Nurul Fatmah, NIM.: 23208012023 (2026) PERAN KETIDAKSTABILAN GEOPOLITIK DALAM MEMODERASI VARIABEL MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI 5 NEGARA ASEAN. Masters thesis, UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA.

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Abstract

Economic growth in the ASEAN region is closely linked to various macroeconomic dynamics and evolving external pressures, including the increasingly frequent occurrences of geopolitical instability. This study aims to analyze how inflation, exchange rates, trade openness (TOP), and foreign direct investment (FDI) influence economic growth in five ASEAN countries that Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Vietnam, to assess whether geopolitical instability (Geopolitical Risk/GPR) is able to strengthen or weaken these relationships. The study employs annual panel data for the period 2009–2023 and utilizes the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) with the assistance of Stata software. The results indicate that geopolitical risk (GPR) has a significant direct effect on economic growth. However, GPR does not moderate the relationship between inflation, exchange rates, and trade openness and economic growth. In these three relationships, GPR only acts as an independent predictor without altering the direction or strength of the macroeconomic variables’ effects. In contrast, the interaction between FDI and GPR is found to be significant with a positive coefficient, indicating that geopolitical instability actually strengthens the effect of FDI on economic growth. These findings suggest that under conditions of global uncertainty, foreign investment plays an increasingly important role in supporting economic growth in the ASEAN region.

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