DETERMINAN PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL DI NEGARA CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY (CBDC) TAHAP PILOT DENGAN KUALITAS INSTITUSI SEBAGAI VARIABEL MODERASI

Nala Syifa Dewanti, NIM.: 24208011027 (2026) DETERMINAN PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL DI NEGARA CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY (CBDC) TAHAP PILOT DENGAN KUALITAS INSTITUSI SEBAGAI VARIABEL MODERASI. Masters thesis, UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA.

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Abstract

This study analyzes the impact Digital Financial Inclusion (DFI), exchange rates, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and tariffs on international trade, as well as to examine the role of Institutional Quality in moderating these relationships in countries currently in the pilot phase of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). The study is grounded in the New Trade Theory as its overarching framework. The study employs a quantitative approach using panel data from 20 CBDC pilot-phase countries over the 2005–2024 period. The analysis utilizes panel data regression with a Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) approach. The results indicate that tariffs have a negative effect on international trade, while Foreign Direct Investment has a positive effect on international trade. The moderation results indicate that Institutional Quality moderates the effects of DFI and FDI. These findings suggest that the success of increasing international trade in CBDC pilot-phase countries is determined not only by digital transformation and economic policies but also by institutional quality, which creates a stable, efficient, and supportive economic environment for global trade integration.

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