ANALISIS KESESUAIAN LAHAN PEMBANGKIT LISTRIK TENAGA SURYA (PLTS) DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN PERBANDINGAN METODE AHP-TOPSIS DAN ENTROPY-WEIGHTED TOPSIS SERTA EVALUASI VARIABILITAS TEMPORAL RADIASI SURYA PADA LOKASI PRIORITAS

Muhammad Solihin, NIM.: 22106060038 (2026) ANALISIS KESESUAIAN LAHAN PEMBANGKIT LISTRIK TENAGA SURYA (PLTS) DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN PERBANDINGAN METODE AHP-TOPSIS DAN ENTROPY-WEIGHTED TOPSIS SERTA EVALUASI VARIABILITAS TEMPORAL RADIASI SURYA PADA LOKASI PRIORITAS. Skripsi thesis, UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA.

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Abstract

Indonesia has substantial solar energy potential, yet its utilization remains relatively low. To support the Net Zero Emission (NZE) 2060 target, the government aims to add 17.1 GW of Solar Power Plant (SPP) capacity under the 2025–2034 Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL). This study aims to compare the AHP-TOPSIS and EWM-TOPSIS methods for identifying priority locations for utility-scale SPPs, evaluate the temporal reliability of solar resources using the Stochastic Coefficient of Variation (sCV) and Forecastability (F), and assess their contribution to the 2025–2034 RUPTL and NZE 2060 targets. Land suitability analysis was conducted using eight criteria across 427,631 grid points that passed the exclusion process, while temporal analysis used daily Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) data from NASA POWER for 2016–2025 at six priority locations. The results show that AHP assigned the highest weight to GHI at 27.20%, whereas EWM was dominated by the Distance to Airport criterion at 46.31%. The two methods showed a strong ranking correlation, with ρ = 0.860 and p < 0.001. The highest-ranked priority location was Pancang, Nunukan Regency, North Kalimantan, with a Ci value of 0.7643 and a first-place national ranking. Oepuah Utara, North Central Timor Regency, East Nusa Tenggara, demonstrated the highest temporal reliability, with an sCV of 0.498 and Forecastability of 0.959. The potential SPP capacity on Highly Suitable (S1) land reached 3,166.9 GW, substantially exceeding the 17.1 GW target. The integration of AHP-TOPSIS, EWM-TOPSIS, sCV, and Forecastability provides a comprehensive framework for utility-scale SPP site evaluation in Indonesia.

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