PENGARUH HARGA CPO GLOBAL, HARGA BARANG SUBSTITUSI, DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP VOLUME EKSPOR CPO INDONESIA

Indah Amelia, NIM.: 22108010067 (2026) PENGARUH HARGA CPO GLOBAL, HARGA BARANG SUBSTITUSI, DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP VOLUME EKSPOR CPO INDONESIA. Skripsi thesis, UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA.

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the factors influencing the export volume of Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) from 1990 to 2024. The dependent variable is Indonesia's CPO export volume, while the independent variables consist of the CPO price, soybean oil price, and exchange rate. The study utilizes time-series data spanning 1990–2024. An Error Correction Model (ECM) regression method is employed to examine the long-term and short-term effects of the independent variables on the dependent variable. The results indicate that, in the short term, CPO price and exchange rate have a significant negative effect on export volume, whereas soybean oil price has a positive effect. In the long term, CPO price has a significant negative effect, while soybean oil price and exchange rate have a significant positive effect on export volume.

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