IRAN DAN POLEMIK JCPOA: KESEPAKATAN, IMPLEMENTASI, DAN PELANGGARAN NUKLIR

Hoirun Nisa, NIM.: 19200020235 (2024) IRAN DAN POLEMIK JCPOA: KESEPAKATAN, IMPLEMENTASI, DAN PELANGGARAN NUKLIR. Masters thesis, UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA.

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Abstract

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is a nuclear agreement signed by Iran and the P5+1 countries (United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany) on July 14, 2015. The main objective of this agreement is to regulate Iran's nuclear program by reducing its nuclear capabilities in the hope of preventing the development of nuclear weapons. In return, Iran would be relieved from international economic sanctions. However, after the United States withdrew from the agreement in May 2018, strong economic sanctions were reimposed on Iran. This led to significant tensions between Iran and other countries that remained committed to the agreement, especially European nations. Since then, Iran began violating some clauses of the JCPOA in 2019 by increasing the production of low and high enriched uranium and surpassing the agreed-upon limits of nuclear fuel stockpiles. This has caused uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the JCPOA and has put pressure on other involved countries to find a solution to uphold the agreement. Based on these issues, this thesis will comprehensively discuss the reasons why Iran violated the JCPOA in 2019. Borrowing theories from Richard C. Snyder, H.W. Bruck, and Burton Sapin regarding the Decision-Making Process, the author finds that there are four factors influencing Iran's breach of the agreement. Firstly, economic conditions. Following the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA and the imposition of harsher sanctions on Iran, Iran's economy suffered significant impacts, including currency depreciation, increased inflation, difficulties accessing global markets, and a decrease in foreign investment. Secondly, public support. Besides impacting domestic economic conditions, this also affected the level of trust among the Iranian population regarding the continuity of the JCPOA. Consequently, the majority of them supported the government's decision to exit the agreement. Thirdly, Donald Trump's policies. The future of the JCPOA became increasingly uncertain after Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the agreement. However, despite this, Iran attempted to maintain its membership status in the agreement. Fourthly, the ineffectiveness of the European Union in resolving U.S. sanctions against Iran. During this issue, the EU took several steps to address the problem, such as using central banks, special purpose vehicles, and instruments in support of trade exchanges. However, none of these measures were effectively realized, leading to disappointment for Iran.

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