PEMODELAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA DENGAN PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN DATA PANEL STATIS DAN DINAMIS

Cindy Lauren Marentesa, NIM.: 21106010041 (2026) PEMODELAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA DENGAN PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN DATA PANEL STATIS DAN DINAMIS. Skripsi thesis, UIN SUNAN KALIJAGA YOGYAKARTA.

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Abstract

Economic growth and human development are two main indicators of regional development success that influence each other in a complex manner. This study aims to examine the simultaneous relationship between economic growth through Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) and human development measured by the Human Development Index (HDI) in Indonesia. In addition to testing the twoway causality, this research focuses on comparing the forecasting accuracy between the static panel data simultaneous equation model using the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method and the dynamic panel data simultaneous equation model using the 2SLS Generalized Method of Moments Arellano Bond (GMM AB) method to determine the best estimation model. The data used covers 33 provinces in Indonesia, sourced from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The simultaneity test results indicate a significant simultaneous relationship between GRDP and HDI. The accuracy calculation is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) indicators. The 2SLS GMM AB method shows a MAPE value of 4.83% in the GRDP equation and 40.13% in the HDI equation. The testing results demonstrate that the 2SLS GMM Arellano Bond method is able to control time dynamic bias more optimally, thereby producing a lower error rate and more precise prediction accuracy compared to the 2SLS method.

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